China and Taiwan: The Possible Emancipation of Taiwan and the Risk of Conflict in the Pacific

Gabriel Monteiro Cerqueira 

 Carolina Conceição Ribeiro

Abstract: This article analyzes the complex relationship between China and Taiwan, showing the geopolitical consequences and risks of a possible conflict between the countries in the Pacific region. The text addresses the history of the relationship between the two countries, from the separation after the Chinese civil war to the nowadays's tensions. Highlighting the current situation of each countries, Taiwan with its internal political stability and the recent significant economic development, aligned with the growth of the pro-independence movement, and China’s pressures with  military activities in the region due to the growth of Taiwan independence discourse.

Keyword: China, Taiwan, Independence, military exercise

Introduction:

Recently, one of the oldest and most complex crises in world geopolitics has returned to the news due to the increase in tensions between those involved. The situation in question is about the attempted emancipation of the Republic of China (Taiwan) from the People's Republic of China (PRC). For a better understanding of this conflict, it is important to highlight  the historical context in which this conflict took place. The island of Taiwan first came under the control of mainland China in the 17th century, during the period of the Qing dynasty. (SILVA, 2024).

Throughout the nineteenth century, a period known as the century of humiliation –, the Chinese empire suffered numerous defeats that resulted in the loss of strength and influence in its territory. One of the most striking defeats was a result of the Second Opium War (1856-1860), against the British and French empire, in  which, after the conflict, Hong Kong came to be administered by Great Britain. At the end of the century, in 1895, after another defeat , during the First Sino-Japanese War, China yielded the island of Taiwan to the Empire of Japan as a reward (BBC, 2024).

Taiwan only returned to Chinese control in 1945, but previously, since 1931, China had once again faced Japanese expansionism. In this new attempt of expansion, Japan occupied the region of Manchuria, creating a puppet state , known as the state of Manchukuo. (BRITANNICA, 2024). Aiming to dominate the rest of China and maintain its imperialist campaign across Asia, Japan began the Second Sino-Japanese War (1937–1945). This time, however, the Japanese Empire was defeated because of its involvement in the Second World War (1939–1945). At the end of the war, as a result of the surrender, Japan was forced to return all occupied territories, including Taiwan. (SOUZA, 2024).

However, during the Second Sino-Japanese War (1937-1945), Chinese territory was practically divided into three parts, the first part known as Nationalist China, which was controlled by the government recognized by the international community, Communist China, which was an ally of the Soviet Union, and the part dominated by the Japanese.With the departure of Japan from the controlled areas,  a war  to establish which party would control China's government began. The Nationalist party, led by Chiang Kai-Shek, was supported by the United States and its allies, while the Communist party, led by Mao Tse-tung, was supported by the Soviet Union. (THE NATIONAL ARCHIVES, 2020).

The conflict itself only ended  in 1949, with the victory of the communist side, which took over the government in Beijing and the  control of mainland China, thus establishing the People's Republic of China (PRC). The defeated side, the nationalists, retreated and took refuge on the island of Taiwan, where they founded the Republic of China (Taiwan). (BRITANNICA, 2019).

In the following decades, the newly founded Republic of China (Taiwan) was governed by the Kuomintang (KMT) party, which had the economic and political support of the United States and its allies, like France and the United Kingdom. In regard to the economy, this support helped  Taiwan on its  path of  economic development, industrializing the country. Politically, on the other hand , this support encouraged  the recognition of the Republic of China as a legitimate government, contributing to the fact that most countries in the world also recognized Taiwan as a sovereign nation. This recognition also contributed to the island’s position as the legitimate representative of China in the UN for more than two decades, as well as being part of the Security Council (BRITANNICA, 2019).

However, a growing number of countries began to recognize the Beijing government as the legitimate representative of China, rather than the Taiwan government. This was due to the fact that many Asian and African countries, newly independent at that time, shared ideologies similar to those of the Chinese communist regime. This scenario set the stage for the  "two Chinas" issue, which was  discussed several times at the UN, with both governments claiming sovereignty and international legitimacy. Finally, in 1971, the UN adopted Resolution 2758, which officially recognized the People's Republic of China as the sole legitimate representative of the United Nations, replacing Taiwan in both the General Assembly and the Security Council (BROOKINGS, 2012)

Although the United States voted against the resolution and maintained its support for Taiwan at first, the  Cold War scenario led the Americans to reconsider their political position towards the two Chinas. Given the diplomatic crisis that the People's Republic of China experienced in the early 1970s with the Soviet Union, the Americans saw it as a strategic opportunity to get closer to Beijing, culminating in the 1979 break in diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which found itself isolated on the international stage, since its main ally no longer supported it directly, resulting in even greater political isolation to this day. (WINKLER, S, 2012).

“Still, it was a combination of Taipei and Beijing's long-standing opposition to proposals for representation of the PRC and the Republic of China at the UN, together with global strategic changes, that led to the end of the Republic of China's representation at the UN and, consequently, also to the expulsion of the Republic of China from all other major international organizations.” (WINKLER, S., 2012)

Taiwan's current situation and the desire for independence

Taiwan currently acts, in fact, as a sovereign state. In its domestic policy, the country adopts a presidential system with the division of three powers (executive, legislative and judicial), and holds regular democratic elections. However, in regard to its foreign policy, the country has extreme difficulty in establishing diplomatic relations with other states, since most countries do not officially recognize its legitimacy. This diplomatic isolation has intensified because of the  strong pressure exerted by China, due its growing global political and economic influence (HART, 2024).

Despite this, Taiwan has a highly developed economy with a very solid industrial base, even being part of the so-called Asian Tigers – a group of countries that experienced very rapid and notable economic development at the end of the 20th century (BBC,2022). This growth is in fact a result of investments in the technology sector, with a focus mainly on the production of semiconductors – a basic component for the manufacture of cars, smartphones, computers, military equipment, etc. The world's semiconductors main company is headquartered on the island, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). Today, TSMC is one of the fastest growing companies in the world, being a key player in global supply chains and strategic for several economic powers, such as China and the United States. This solid industrial base, combined with investments in research, innovation and education, means that the country maintains one of the highest GDPs per capita in the region (STAMPFL, 2024).

Due to high economic development, autonomy in internal politics and diplomatic pressure from China, the feeling in favor of independence has grown among the Taiwanese population. Increasingly, citizens reject the idea of ​​unification with mainland China, opting for their own national identity. According to a survey conducted by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, 59.9% of Taiwanese people say they are in favor of independence, while only 16.7% support unification with Beijing. The majority of the population rejects unification  due to the ideological aspects of the People's Republic of China rather than cultural differences, since while Taiwan follows the capitalist political model, China follows the socialist political model (Taipei Times, 2023).

Pro-independence ideas have also directly influenced internal political decisions in Taiwan. The current ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has a favorable view of the island's emancipation and stands against any possibility of unification with mainland China, defending the sovereignty of the state of Taiwan and its population. (BROOKINGS, 2022).

Even after the severance of diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979, the United States continued to be one of the Asian island's main allies. Later that year, the United States Congress ratified the Taiwan Relations Act, which no longer recognized Taiwan as a sovereign state, but it did recognize that the country had a significant economic, political, and social presence on the international stage. In addition, the Americans committed to ensuring the island's security, including providing weapons and military training. For the Americans, especially in the context of the Cold War, it was necessary to prevent Taiwan from becoming vulnerable to China, since the island represented a form of resistance to the progress of communist ideologies in the Asian region. (G1, 2022)

“The United States has since adopted a policy called strategic ambiguity in relation to Taiwan; in other words, the United States recognized the sovereignty of the People's Republic of China over Taiwan, but refused the use of military force by the Chinese government to enshrine this sovereignty. In 1979, an agreement was concluded between Washington and the Taiwanese government, and in this agreement, the United States committed to defending Taiwan in the event of a Chinese military attack” (JORNAL USP., 2024)

As this law is still in force today, in recent years, relations between the two countries have become even closer, as Taiwan has experienced quite notable economic growth, especially in the area of ​​technology, leading the Americans to become even more interested in maintaining the sovereignty of the Republic of China. This rapprochement was soon evident with official visits by US representatives to the island and agreements for the sale of weapons and semiconductors, which ended up increasing tension with Beijing (JORNAL USP, 2024)

China’s Approach and Rising Tensions

China's narrative on Taiwan’s dilemma is based on the “One China” principle, which states that Taiwan is an inherent part of Chinese territory, that the People's Republic of China will never allow the island’s independence, and that unification is considered inevitable (MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF CHINA, 2025).

In 1992, the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits and the Straits Exchange Foundation, which are semi-official government organizations, agreed on the “1992 Consensus,” a verbal consensus between the sides in which both of them agreed on the “OneChina” principle, despite having different interpretations of what it meant.  The agreement suggested that the relationship between the two territories would be based on dialogue to resolve any differences (RESAR, 2022). However, analysts state that documents from back then demonstrate the true purpose of signing the agreement was to create a mechanism to manage the cross-strait relations, considering that it was an impossible conflict to resolve (RESAR, 2022).

Following this concept, Taiwan is constantly referred to as a “rebel province”, yet, the Taiwanese government  claims that after the period being governed by China and then by Japan, Taiwan became an independent state with its own constitution and democratically elected leaders. Additionally, the People's Republic of China, founded in 1949, has never exercised authority over the island, therefore, the term “rebel province” would not be applicable (G1, 2023).

In addition, Chinese news outlets report that the island is militarizing its citizens and strengthening its defensive capacity in light of the current threat scenario. The Chinese government has been highly critical of this initiative, accusing Taiwan of various actions that involve discouraging its population from learning about China and its connection with the island. On top of that, they claim that the Taiwanese leader's speech incites opposition against Mainland China, making cooperation between the two territories even harder (RESAR, 2022).

In March 2025, the spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office stated that Lai Ching-te and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) were the ones responsible for the rising tensions with China and therefore are the most significant risk to a possible scenario of stability and peace in the territory of the Taiwan Strait. The spokesperson also stated that China would not allow actions that are not in the best interests of the island's population and that the community should confront the declarations of Lai and the DPP in order to maintain peace in the territory (LIN; CULVER; HART, 2025)

In recent years, tensions between Taiwan and China have increased significantly as the Chinese country has expanded its military capabilities, including its nuclear weapons, and has conducted more military exercises with the purpose of putting pressure on Taiwan  (LIN; CULVER; HART, 2025). As Taiwanese presidents have taken more pro-independence approaches, Chinese military exercises have increased, raising concerns not only in Taiwan but also in the United States, making them wonder how long will it take until China decides to use force to take possession of the island. For instance, in August 2022, China conducted more military exercises than ever before and that was during the term of President Tsai Ing-Wen of Taiwan, who made very clear the importance of the island's independence. (LIN; CULVER; HART, 2025).

Currently, the presidency of Taiwan is held by Lai Ching-te, who strongly defends the country's sovereignty, making China carry out more aggressive exercises as a demonstration of force in response to the pro-independence position by Taiwan. In addition, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the world’s largest military exercise, has 2 million soldiers and is one of the main tools used by the Chinese government as a form of displaying your power to the Taiwanese island.

The most recent exercise was in April 2025, named as “Strait Thunder-2025A” it involved naval, air and ground forces that simulated a blockade of the island of Taiwan from multiple directions. Specifically, 71 aircraft, 21 warships and 4 Coast Guard vessels were detected. In addition, daily invasions of Taiwan's air defence identification zone are reported (G1, 2025). The Chinese government sees the current leader of Taiwan as a threat to its plans, leading the country to demonstrate its potential as stronger than ever.

“In 2024, the Chinese military flew a record-shattering 3,075 sorties into this zone, an increase of over 80 percent from 2023. These operations aim to delegitimize Taiwan’s claims to its surrounding air and seas and complicate Taiwan’s ability to monitor and track activities around the island. Some of these air incursions occur as part of “joint combat readiness patrols,” involving not just air assets but also coordinated maritime operations. These patrols are now occurring on a near-weekly basis and offer China opportunities to quickly step up coercion against Taiwan short of much larger-scale exercises. Days after Lai unveiled his 17 strategies in March, for instance, China launched two joint combat readiness patrols and then followed up two weeks later by holding its Strait Thunder-2025A exercise.” (LIN; CULVER; HART, 2025)

Today, Taiwan has minimal diplomatic recognition and only 12 countries recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state. Among them are Paraguay, the Vatican and Tuvalu. This is because China uses diplomatic and economic tools to require that, to maintain relations with the country, it is necessary to not recognize Taiwan's sovereignty. Furthermore the diplomatic isolation of Taiwan began in the 1970s and 1980s when China gained economic and political strength. Specifically, in 1971, when China was recognized as the representative of the Chinese nation by the UN General Assembly, Taiwan was no longer part of the organization, which it was a founding member of (G1, 2023). 

China uses as example Hong Kong, which was under British control and returned to China in 1997, and Macau, which was a Portuguese territory until 1999 and was returned as well to state that it is only a matter of time before Taiwan reintegration (WEI, C.Y. 2023). Also, one of the reasons that explains China’s urgency to reintegrate Taiwan would be the island’s strategic role as an alternative trade route. Given the possibility of conflicts in the South China Sea and non-allied countries, such as South Korea and Japan, there is a risk of blockades affecting the main Chinese sea routes in the southern region. Thus, controlling this territory would be a way to ensure a way out to the sea that is less vulnerable to external pressures (BNO - TAIPEI OFFICE, 2025)

However, the case of Taiwan is considered a complex process, especially when taking into consideration  the influence of the United States in the region (SILVA, 2024). Despite recognizing China's sovereignty and not maintaining official diplomatic relations with the island, the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act guarantees military aid to the government and the sale of military resources that contribute to the non-intervention by military forces to pressure Taiwan's unification with China (MAIZLAND; FONG, 2025).

It is important to highlight that the United States has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to the island's security, especially when it comes to the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances. Furthermore, the economic aid that the United States has provided to the island helped Taiwan become one of the Asian Tigers (BBC, 2015).

Conclusion

In light of these latest actions by both sides, the scenario of uncertainty regarding cross-strait relations is noticeable. China's narrative of the Taiwanese island as an inseparable part of its territory shows a demonstration of diplomatic and military power.

This is evident when it comes to the pressure applied on other countries to isolate the island diplomatically, limiting its allies and its actions on the international stage. Alongside this, Chinese speeches, increasingly inclined to the need to use force to integrate Taiwan’s territory, and the intensification of military exercises in the Taiwan Strait have increased tension in the region. The issue around this not only concerns Taiwan, but also the United States, which provides military support to the island, and the world. The consequences of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait could lead to a geopolitical polarization between China and the United States and potentially a global economic destabilization, considering Taiwan's role in semiconductors production, affecting international trade and financial markets.

Therefore, the current scenario demonstrates uncertainty surrounding the future of the island of Taiwan and its pursuit of legitimacy, independence and stability, which will be directly impacted by how this situation is managed not only by China and Taiwan but also by other international actors. Thus, the need for diplomatic solutions using tools such as cooperation, international mediation and dialogue to resolve the tension, avoid escalation and achieve regional peace with mutual respect for sovereignty, is critical.

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