Gabriel Monteiro, Gustavo Pita and Michelle Lomi
Introduction
The US presidential election is one of the most important political events in the world, with significant repercussions on international politics and global economies. In a polarized political scenario, issues such as social justice, environmental policies, civil and economic rights emerge as central themes that define the ideas of the main candidates. The electoral system, based on the Electoral College, is made up of 538 delegates, divided among the states, in which the most populous have the majority, and the least populous have the minority. This system makes the dispute even more complex, with each state playing a crucial role, especially the so-called "swing states", known for not having any candidate or party with a majority, any candidate has a chance of winning. Usually these states decide the American elections (CSIS, 2024).
The 2024 US electoral race takes place in a scenario of extreme internal political polarization, with debates on important issues, such as immigration, economy, education and civil rights. It is mainly influenced by foreign policy, especially the democratic threat that many point to with the growth of authoritarian and populist movements, and the war in Ukraine and Israel (CSIS, 2024).
The election will take place in a scenario of increasing use of social media and the popularization of public figures, such as celebrities and digital influencers, has an important role in shaping public opinion and voting behaviour. In the past decades, traditional media outlets (newspapers, television and radio) exercised greater control over information. On the other hand, with the technological developments over the years , digital platforms such as X (former Twitter), Instagram, TikTok and YouTube have transformed the way electoral campaigns are conducted. They offer direct access to millions of voters, allowing political narratives, fake news and speeches to be amplified in real-time (ONCLUSIVE, 2024).
Public figures, from Hollywood celebrities to high-profile digital influencers, have played an active role in promoting political causes, candidates and movements. These figures, with millions of followers, often transcend the traditional political arena, directly influencing voting behavior, especially among young and undecided voters (BOARDROOM, 2024).
In this way, social media becomes not only a platform for communication but also an arena for ideological dispute, where battles for attention, validation and narrative are fought. The 2024 election reflects this new era of digital politics, where disinformation, polarization and the personalization of campaigns through algorithms are determining factors for electoral results (BOARDROOM, 2024).
This article seeks to explain how social media and public figures are influencing the 2024 US electoral race, transforming the political landscape through new forms of communication, mobilization, and manipulation of public opinion, as well as an analysis of the 2016 election and how digital media and influential personalities impacted its results.
The Role of Social Media and Public Figures in Politics
A survey made by IZEA (2024) revealed that 46% of media users have changed their political opinion based on an influencer’s content. This research illustrates how the increase of public figures sharing their thoughts about public affairs through social media has a direct impact on politics nowadays and, specifically, in the 2024 US presidential election. With this in mind, social media has greatly influenced the way people, especially the younger ones, stay informed. In that sense, most candidates choose to do their political campaigns mostly through online platforms, such as Instagram, X and TikTok, hoping in some sort of way to connect to the younger supporters (PADILLA, 2024).
For instance, during the 2024 US presidential election, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) invited more than 200 content creators to cover their events (PADILLA, 2024). According to Padilla (2024) “in total, all of the content creators who participated in the convention could reach 500 million accounts on a variety of social media platforms”. Furthermore, since Kamala Harris became the official democratic nominee, the democratic campaign has increased the number of online supporters thanks to memes, TikTok dances and, mostly, online celebrity endorsement (PADILLA, 2024).
Evidence of how a public person could directly affect the 2024 US electoral race is the impact of the American singer Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris among younger voters. On September 11, the American songwriter publicly supported the democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, through her Instagram account. With more than 280 million followers on her account, within 24 hours after her endorsement, nearly 340,000 people had entered a registration website through a custom link Ms. Swift created (SPRING, 2024). As well as Taylor Swift, other public figures have publicly supported Kamala Harris, such as Eminem, Ariana Grande, LeBron James, Olivia Rodrigo and Beyoncé. As a result, these endorsements can explicitly influence the internet users’ opinion about the 2024 democratic nominee, as the 2024 IZEA survey demonstrated
.
Fake News and Globalization
The presidential elections in the US this year take place in a scenario marked by the growing influence of social media and its impacts on the outcome of the elections. Also driven by the great media coverage that, with the globalization of the media, makes the American election a subject all over the world, with worldwide repercussions on its consequences.
The Globalization phenomenon, which connects billions of people around the world in real-time, has accelerated the speed at which both information and disinformation circulates (BROOKINGS, 2024). The phenomenon of fake news has become one of the biggest challenges in times of decisive elections like this one. Although social networks have democratized access to information, allowing more people to participate in public debates, it has also become a powerful vehicle for the dissemination of disinformation, amplifying untruths and manipulating the perception of voters. According to research by the University of Oxford (2021), more than 317,000 accounts were deleted from Facebook and X, due to the creation of fake news .
Digital platforms such as X, Facebook and TikTok, that fight fake news, have often seen their efforts become ineffective due to the large volume of information and the difficulty of regulating what is shared in real time. This allows fake news, conspiracy theories and distorted information to circulate at enormous speed, especially when fake profiles, such as bots, often promote this spread, creating a false sense of relevance (PEW RESEARCH, 2024). Globalization further exacerbates this phenomenon, allowing foreign agents to actively engage in the dissemination of disinformation. As happened in the 2016 elections with the interference of Russian agents, who actively created and promoted misleading content on social media with the aim of polarizing American voters and influencing the election outcome (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 2024). This shows how the globalization of digital communication threatens the sovereignty of these nations as it allows external influences to affect national electoral processes, allowing interests and ideologies from other countries to infiltrate narratives into national debates, with the aim of manipulating them in their favor. (BROOKINGS, 2024)
In addition, social media allows candidates to communicate directly with their constituents, breaking down traditional communication barriers and offering a more accessible platform for political debates. In this sense, election campaigns can mobilize their voters, raise funds, and even promote transparency through live streaming and instant communication. (BROOKINGS, 2024) Therefore of the 2024 U.S. elections, the digital platforms plays a crucial role, both as a vehicle for information and as an agent of disinformation, shaping public perception in unprecedented ways and with a direct impact on the outcome.(BROOKINGS, 2024)
Fake News in Politics: An Analysis of the US election race in 2016
An example that perfectly illustrates the essence of the media influence in politics is the US election process that took place in 2016. Hunt Allcot and Matthew Gentzkow (2017) says that Fake News "imposes private and social costs by making it more difficult for consumers to infer the true state of the world—for example, by making it more difficult for voters to infer which electoral candidate they prefer", and that's exactly what happened in 2016.
The dispute between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton was full of prejudice, such as misogyny, media support, where famous personalities declared support for a candidate, and Fake News. Trump was an "outsider" – an individual who has never exercised an effective mandate – and had extreme political opinions, especially about minorities, such as immigrants. He also had support from influential radio personalities and FOX News (LEVITSKY; ZIBLATT, 2018).
All of these factors represented what was necessary for the Fake News, mostly created by Trump and his followers, to be spread at an incredible speed. During this electoral process, there were over 100 pro-Trump Fake News, and only 41 pro-Hillary Fake News (ALLCOT; GENTZKOW, 2017), which caused the following situation:
We estimate that the average US adult read and remembered on the order of one or perhaps several fake news articles during the election period, with higher exposure to pro-Trump articles than pro-Clinton articles. How much this affected the election results depends on the effectiveness of fake news exposure in changing the way people vote.
(ALLCOT; GENTZKOW, 2017, p. 232)
About the Trump ones, we can exemplify the situation with widely shared articles from the "now-defunct website denverguardian.com with the headline, FBI agent suspected in Hillary email leaks found dead in an apparent murder-suicide." (ALLCOT; GENTZKOW, 2017), and also from the "now-defunct website wtoe5news.com reported that Pope Francis had endorsed Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy" (ALLCOT; GENTZKOW, 2017). It's also important to highlight that most of this fake news was spread through social media (ALLCOT; GENTZKOW, 2017). They used the emotions of the readers, such as anger, to make them ignore if they were fake or not and immerse in their emotions, sharing the news way faster. In conclusion, Donald Trump was elected president at the end of the 2016 Election race. Many researchers argue about the influence of the pro-Trump Fake News on this, but as this paper has stated before, there’s no doubt of it.
Conclusion
Due to the strong influence the U.S. holds, its election race is an event that impacts the whole world, and since 2016 there's been a clear polarization within American society (LEVITSKY; ZIBLATT, 2018). In recent times, however, globalization has made it harder to have this process without external influences. Social media, Fake news and Public Figures are key elements to influence the individual vote.
Actions such as Taylor Swift’s, and other influencers' support of Kamala Harris in 2024, generate a huge impact on how their followers will vote (SPRING, 2024). Most of these influences happen in social media, especially on Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, and X (former Twitter). Therefore, in 2024, 46% of media users have changed their political opinions based on an influencer’s content (IZEA, 2024), which confirms the power the media holds in US politics. However, in these digital platforms, the users get access to a huge amount of information, and part of them are not based on real factors.
That's what happened in the US Election race of 2016, when there were over 100 pro-Trump Fake News, and only 41 pro-Hillary Fake News (ALLCOT; GENTZKOW, 2017) This can easily influence some voters, changing the results of the election process. In 2024, this scenario repeats itself, with the victory of Trump over Kamala based on a set of Fake News and extreme prejudice (BBC, 2024).
Thus, the Public Figures support still stands, and Fake News is becoming even more influential. In this scenario, the US Election Race in 2024 is affected by its precedents and continuous media influence, which results in Trump’s re-election.
Reference
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