Por: Michelle Lomi
Centro de Práticas em Organizações Internacionais
1. Introduction
The Heartland theory presents a "Pivot area", which is the epicentre of the world's geopolitics. Its conquer would mean an easy influence over the rest of the globe. As the man behind this theory, Halford Mckinder was worried about the German and Russian threats to Great Britain's navy and published the "Geographical Pivot of History" (1904). In his book he illustrates Eurasia as a land power to combat the maritime hegemony, being essential for enriching the power of the dominant nation in this region. In this case, the Heartland could be unified by the cooperation between Germany and Russia or by the domination of the first over the second. Mackinder (1904) also discusses a Sino-Japanese influence in the region, but as we saw during history, China and Japan never got to achieve this together.
However, the International scenario has changed much from Mackinder's time, and nowadays other nations are central to world politics, economics and geopolitics. One of them is China, which according to Harper (2017), substitutes Germany in Mckinder's conception. He argues that "China constitutes as much to the perception of contemporary Eurasia as Russia has done [...] ", and that the Chinese nation can equally claim the Eurasia region and challenge the American maritime hegemony.
The presence of China in Eurasia is not recent, dating from the Chinese empire, in the Ming and Qing Dynasty, and was needed to assure the security of the empire. In both Dynasties, China wasn't successful due to threats in its borders, but a symbol of its presence is the old Silk Trade (Harper, 2017). From the Chinese empire until the period post-Cold War, China didn't have much of a presence in Eurasia, but this changed in recent times thanks to the decline of the Soviet Union and the fast development of the country.
Hence, this review paper tries to understand how the presence of China in Eurasia affects the actual Western hegemony. To achieve this, we are going to analyse the political changes, the consequences for the USA and Russia, and the economic aspect of China in Eurasia.
2. China’s engagement with Eurasia: political changes
The Chinese presence in Eurasia represents a big change in world dynamics, especially in the actual context where China is one of the main nations when it comes to questioning Western hegemony. In this scenario, China’s engagement with Eurasia represents threats and benefits to many countries around the globe.
2.1 Possible threats to the USA
Both in the economics and politics field, China is gaining progressively more influence, and its action in Eurasia is a direct threat to the USA’s maritime power (Harper, 2017). This would consolidate the following scenario: China as a land power creates a new way to exercise its power and economic trade, through Eurasia, escaping from the USA control, which completely changes the world's hegemony as we know it. Limin (2010) claims that "the United States will always seek to challenge Chinese policy towards Central Asia.", and the USA would pursue wider geopolitics objectives in this region.
Another threat to the USA is the Sino-Russian alignment of interests, which materializes with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), an institution that would challenge the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) hegemony in Eurasia since this is a military and political alliance presented in the region (Chung, 2004). However, something that Harper (2017) didn't pay much attention to is NATO's consistent expansion to the Eurasia and Russia borders. This action is very concerning since it demonstrates the contention objectives of the Eurasia power and the interests in the Asian continent from the USA and its allies. The actions of the USA in this region, from NATO's expansion in Eurasia to the support of Taiwan province, demonstrate its interest in establishing itself in this area, but most of it is being made by sea, which justifies the land power threat that China is to the USA.
2.2 Consequences for Russia
In general terms there are two main consequences of the Chinese expansion to Eurasia for Russia. The first one is positive, creating opportunities for a powerful economic and strategic alliance to challenge the American hegemony (Harper, 2017). This would represent what Mckinder (1904) says about the dominance of Eurasia through the cooperation of Russia and, in this case not with Germany but China.
The second aspect is most dangerous for Russia since it offers a negative aspect, it’s when China gains the potential to challenge Russia in its sphere of influence. This would be qualified as Chinese domination over Russia, bringing a new perspective to Mckinder's Theory. Furthermore, Abilov (2012) says that the Chinese expansion to Eurasia can be a problem for the USA but it can be
"equally problematic for Russian interests in Central Asia. This can be seen in Russian fears over Chinese economic interests in Central Asia, which is viewed as a sweeping move towards Chinese economic hegemony in the region at the expense of Russia".
(Abilov, 2012, p. 47)
The Chinese economic hegemony as said by Abilov (2012), is the first step of the dominance of the region. That represents, with the addition of other aspects mentioned above, a big threat to Russia's position in Eurasia.
3. The Economic Dimensions of China in Eurasia
When it comes to the economic aspects of this process, Pirro (2015) says that "China’s primary objective is to re-orientate Eurasia to China’s sphere of influence" which " [...] illustrates how China’s pursuit of economic growth is an expression of China’s wider aspirations.". So, this whole expansion to Eurasia has an economic aim, and it generates geopolitical reverberations, as stated in this paper before. It is fundamental to understand that the global economy follows a biased Western hegemony based on a specific capitalist model, so the Chinese economic boom could change the present International System, introducing a new perspective into the main decisions that will rule the world's relations.
Furthermore, when we focus on Eurasia, the Chinese objective is to guarantee resources that are essential for its development, and at the same time build a land path for the economic transitions without the interference of the USA. This is exactly what the “One Belt, One Rail” project does. As illustrated in Figure 1, it builds an interconnected land road in Eurasia, which represents a threat to the USA since this road is land-based, meaning that the main American force through the sea won't have much power in the region. This situation, according to Harper (2017), is weakening "the naval trump card that it has served as a cornerstone of American hegemony".
Figure 1: The New Silk Road
4. Conclusion
Politics and economic factors are fundamental to the International System. That's exactly why China is such a threat to Western hegemony. Thus, this review paper shows the most dynamic points in the Chinese expansion to Eurasia. Relations between China and Russia are ambiguous, but as analyzed in this review paper, it is evident that the first will surely surpass the second and assume control of the region. Following Mckinder's (1904) visions, the Eurasia conquest by China will be based on a land power surpassing the USA’s maritime power, as seen with the "One Belt One Road" initiative.
Harper (2017) doesn't give us a very direct conclusion about the main objective of the Chinese policies. However, we choose to believe that even if the aims of China's projects are economics, the geopolitics consequences are indeed planned. Furthermore, Harper (2017) executes very well its arguments to defend that China is the land power of the 21st century. As a result, China will be the most influential country in only a few years, and the "One Belt, One Road" allied with its connections with the Third World is proof of that. So, we can conclude that in recent days, Eurasia is not dominated by Russia or by Western nations, but by the Chinese nation.
References
ABILOV, Shankhal. The new great game over the Caspian region: Russia, the USA and China in the same melting pot. Khazar Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 2012.
CHUNG, Chien-peng. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: China’s changing influence in Central Asia. China Quarterly, 2004.
HARPER, Tom. Towards an Asian Eurasia: Mackinder’s heartland theory and the return of China to Eurasia. Cambridge Journal of Eurasian Studies, 2017. https://doi.org/10.22261/CRZXUW
LIMIN, Lin; Ying, Huang. World geopolitics and China’s choices. Contemporary International Relations, 2010.
MACKINDER, Halford J. The geographical pivot of history. The Geographical Journal, 1904. https://doi.org/10.2307/ 1775498.
MERICS. China Mapping: The New Silk Road. 2015. http://www.merics.org/fileadmin/_processed_/csm_China-Mapping-Silk-Road-DEC2015-EN_686923c005.jpg.
PIRRO, Ellen. Great power foreign relations in Central Asia. Russia, Eurasia and the New Geopolitics of Energy, 2015.
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